In many ways, the future of climate change may depend on the actions China takes. The country is starting to realize its development potential. However, with this development comes the energy needs of over a billion people who find themselves with new, unmatched access to markets. Yet, currently, according to a post by Kate Galbraith on the New York Times blog Green Inc. “China gets less than 1 percent of its electricity from wind; coal, meanwhile, provides 80 percent.”The good news is that in each of the past four years China has doubled its wind power capacity. The country is currently on track to pass the United States “this year as the largest market for wind turbines in the world.” Additionally, a recent paper published in Science by Harvard University and Tsinghua University (Beijing) academics finds that “[w]ind power could supply 15 percent of China’s electricity by 2030 . . .” Of course; such a goal would require a substantial investment of $900 billion over the same time period. The authors of the study acknowledge the investment is large, but they do not think it is unreasonable given China’s annual gross domestic product of $3.8 trillion.
Still, there are other speed bumps that must be crossed before China can reach this potential—besides cost. One thing is the efficiency of the turbines and environmental realities. At present “each turbine in china is about 23 percent lower than in the United States, due to slower winds, lower-quality machinery and other factors, the authors note.”
Additionally, China may face supply and demand problems. The demand for electricity in China increases 10 percent yearly, according to the study. By 2030 the demand is expected to have doubled. If coal is the primary source of electricity to meet this demand, than any legislation the U.S. Congress might pass may not be enough to curb climate change. This is why the Obama administration wants a climate change bill passed that shows the U.S. commitment to fighting global warming. The administration believes such a commitment would give the U.S. better leverage during the climate change talks in Copenhagen, Denmark this December.
To read the Green Inc. post click here.
Posted: 09/30/09
