Reuters has an analysis out by Miho Yoshikawa that examines how the new Japanese government will approach agricultural trade. If Yoshikawa’s analysis is right, then the United States can expect tougher negotiations in U.S. beef “and other farm import talks, with any free trade deal with the United States looking far[-]fetched given fierce opposition from farmers.” This is certainly not something U.S. farmers and ranchers, nor U.S. trade officials want to hear.The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took control of government on Wednesday “two small parties, including the Social Democrats, which oppose both easing beef import rules and opening Japan to more farm imports.”
The U.S. beef industry claims a loss of roughly $10 billion in sale to Japan resulting from the six year ban on U.S. beef over fears of mad cow disease. With strict limits in place some beef exports to Japan resumed in 2006. Hirotaka Akamatsu will be the minister of agriculture. The choice of the former socialist lawmakers “suggests little impetus to free up trade.”
Akamatsu “views the past decade’s structural reforms in Japan as creating social inequalities and damaging local economies.” Mr. Akamatsu’s views are relatively consistent with the views of fellow “Democratic Part lawmakers from farming areas hold even more protectionist views about trade than the former government.”
For the United States’ part: “U.S. exports in 2003 amounted to roughly 240,000 tonnes, or $1.4 billion in value, while the U.S. Meat Export Federation said in an interview last week that it was running slightly behind its target of exporting 100,000 tonnes this year. Washington wants Japan, its biggest export market until the 2003 ban, to scrap all age restrictions on beef imports. But traders say both sides may be willing to agree on lifting the age limit to up to 30 months as a compromise.”
It remains to be seen how the new government will work with American trade representatives to try and solve some of the problems with beef and potentially with rice, since, “Coalition partner Social Democrats say it may even consider ending importing a minimum level of rice imports, which Japan has agreed to as part of an international agreement.” In the meantime, the new government is looking at free trade negotiations with the United States as a future issue.
To read the Reuters story click here.
Posted: 09/18/09
