Rudy Ruitenberg of Bloomberg Online is reporting about a scenario no one in agriculture wants to see; a scenario where “Farmers in South Asia may reap only half of today’s wheat harvest in 40 years’ time as global temperatures rise and rain falls in different places, according to a study on climate change and agriculture.”The Asian Development Bank and the World Bank financed a study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) that reveals by the year 2050 we may all be eating less as climate change may “cut corn, wheat and rice yields across developing countries by 2050, boosting prices and causing hunger[.]”
However, there is room for optimism as the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) “has said its ‘cautiously optimistic’ food output can rise 70 percent to feed an increased world population in 2050.” The optimism lies in increasing yields and employing “more intensive farming.” In reality, the FAO is calling for the late Dr. Norman Borlaug’s life’s work to continue to be carried out.
Those likely hit hardest, according to the study’s lead author Gerald Nelson, will be developing nations because climate change will have a greater affect on their domestic harvest yields. The study predicts that by 2050 South Asia will see a 50 percent drop in average wheat yields from 200 levels. Corn and rice would fall 6 and 17 percent. “Across developing countries, yields for irrigated wheat would slide between 28 percent and 34 percent, depending on the climate-change forecast used. In developed countries, the expected decline would be limited to 4.9 percent to 5.7 percent.”
Naturally, lower yields puts more demand on a limited supply, thus causing food prices to rise. Food prices would have increased anyway, according to Nelson, but climate change will make an already bad problem much worse. By 2050 wheat and corn prices could be double their 2000 level.
“World wheat prices may rise as high as $334 a metric ton in 2050 from $113 in 2000, compared with a gain to $158 a ton without any climate-change effect, the study shows. . . Rice prices might jump to $421 a ton from $190, compared with an increase to $307 a ton without climate change. Global corn prices may increase to as much as $240 a ton from $95 in 2000, compared to $155 a ton with an unchanged climate.”Ruitenberg reports that IFPRI used a crop-simulation model called DSSAT and “two climate-change scenarios, by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.”
The news is not bad for all nations. Canada, China, and northern Russia could have improved growing conditions due to climate change, but the yield from rain-fed wheat only increases “between 2.4 percent and 3.1 percent.” Meanwhile, developing countries will see one of their staples, rice, decline “between 14 percent and 19 percent.” Since the effect of “so-called CO2 fertilization, whereby higher carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere might boost plant growth,” is under dispute by scientist, it was not included in the study, but when included the declines and increases in developing-country yields is smaller.
“. . . 25 million more children would be underfed in 2050 compared with a world with no shift, according to the study.” The study describes the scenario thusly, ‘“Crop yields will decline, production will be affected, crop and meat prices will increase and consumption of cereals will fall, leading to reduced calorie intake and increased child malnutrition.”’
To combat this reality there must be an increase in agricultural investments in these developing nations to the tune of “$7.1 billion and $7.3 billion a year to counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition,” according to the study.
The study highlights a problem that exists now and that Dr. Borlaug fought against his whole life—how to feed a growing population. The reality, according to Dr. Borlaug and the United Nations, is that countries need to be able to sustain themselves by employing agriculture methods that increase in terms of yields but make more efficient use of resources so that yields can continue to meet demand.
To read the Ruitenberg article click here.
To read a previous blog post on Dr. Borlaug click here.
To read a previous blog post on the United Nations and the world food scenario click here.
To read a previous blog post on the United Nations and the world food scenario click here.
Posted: 09/30/09
