The ranking members of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees have jumped on US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack’s recent remarks in which he critiqued the model used to form the USDA climate change economic analysis.On December 18, 2009, Secretary Vilsack issued a news release commenting on the release of the USDA climate change analysis. In the news release, the Secretary states, “USDA's Chief Economist, Joe Glauber, released the results of his full economic analysis showing that agriculture will benefit from energy and climate legislation if it includes a robust carbon offsets program and other helpful provisions. The costs of such legislation will be modest while returns from offsets will increase over-time and result in positive net income for agriculture.”
However, later in the release this statement is made about the analysis, which used the FASOM model (which was developed by researchers at Texas A&M University),
“Based on conversations with Dr. Glauber and my staff, I don't believe the results related to afforestation forecast by the FASOM model are necessarily an accurate depiction of the impacts of climate legislation. The model could be updated to better reflect current legislative proposals. The FASOM model as it is currently configured makes assumptions that reduce farmer income from offsets generated by conservation tillage, methane reductions and other offset activities. The model also makes other assumptions that could lead to an overestimate of afforestation. This is especially true given that the model
attempts to forecast land use impact over long-time horizons.”
In response to these concerns, Secretary Vilsack goes on to state in the release that he has “directed Dr. Glauber to work together with EPA to undertake a review of the assumptions in the FASOM model, to update the model, and to develop options on how best to avoid unintended consequences for agriculture that might result from climate change legislation.”
The update order comes after the Senate and House Agriculture committees ranking members Senator Saxby Chambliss (GA) and Representative Frank Lucas (OK) sent a letter to Secretary Vilsack asking him to order an update of the analysis. Additionally, according to Senator Chambliss’ news release, the duo would like “both the USDA and EPA report to the House and Senate Agriculture Committees on the problems with the economic model in order to reflect realistic scenarios while examining the impact of cap and trade on the agriculture and forestry sectors.”
It looks like an update is coming, we shall have to wait and see what the new numbers say.
To read the USDA release click here.
To read the USDA analysis click here.
To read the news release from Senator Chambliss, this contains the text of the letter sent to Secretary Vilsack, click here.
Posted: 12/21/09
